Lincolnshire’s agricultural community fear ruin and the possibility of food shortages if the ongoing conflict in Iran continues.
Farmers and agricultural representatives are facing increased fuel and fertiliser prices, which could impact the future of their farms and crop yield.
With the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting breakdown in trade, the prices of oil, fertiliser, and natural gas have soared.
Although impacting farmers across the UK, and even globally, this inflation has caused worries across Lincolnshire, a county reliant and proud of its agricultural output.
Henry Morton, an arable farmer based in Woodhall Spa, worries what the future holds for his farm if the disruptions continue, especially when harvest season comes during July to October.
He said: “We are going to start using a lot of fuel. That is the worry, if they start rationing fuel.
“That is one thing I am absolutely scared of. The price is strangling us now, if we can’t get fuel, we’re dead, we can’t get the next crops off the ground.”
In February, the US and Israel launched major strikes on Iran, triggering their retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important maritime channel used for the world’s oil and energy supply.
Twenty percent of the global oil supply and 20 percent of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the National Farmers Union, on May 7, red diesel (a cheaper diesel permitted to be used for farming and other off-road vehicles) had increased by 50 percent, from its price on February 27.
Fertilisers have also been a key area affected by the conflict, with ammonia nitrate fertiliser prices increasing by 30 percent, and urea fertiliser increasing by 41 percent.
These components are highly significant for farms to run successfully, but with the ongoing issues and worries, farmers are facing the consequences.
Morton said: “Obviously fertiliser is a big concern coming forward, I don’t think the general public realise how serious that is.”
He explained that some farmers are playing the long game, and waiting to buy fertiliser, but with the risk of it not being delivered on time.
“We don’t really need fertiliser until January, February. But if every farmer doesn’t order fertiliser, and then orders it all in January, February, they won’t be able to deliver everyone’s fertiliser at the same time.
“So, that’s a worry. That really, really is worrying.”
Although facing the anxiety of the precarious position he is in, Morton remains hopeful for the future, remaining optimistic in the resilience of farmers during this “rollercoaster” of a time.
He said: “It seems to be a never-ending battle at the moment, but I can see the end of this fertiliser malarky, I really can.
“I just hope I’m right before we need it, because if we don’t, we’re going to be up the creek with the proverbial paddle.”
Although Morton remains positive, government officials were assembling plans for the possible scenario of food shortages in supermarkets if the war continues, in April.
Elements like natural gas, which heats glasshouses for the production of fruit and vegetables, and carbon dioxide (CO2) have also been impacted by falling supplies and increased prices.
In the UK, Lincolnshire supplies the most food, producing over 30 percent of England’s fruit and vegetables, and 18 percent of the UK’s poultry.
Charlotte Powell, 37, CEO of the Lincolnshire Agricultural Society, said the prospect of food shortages is very significant for the county because of its pride toward the agricultural output.
She said: “I always think about it as that we all sit at home at night, look at our plates, most of that food has been farmed, and most of it has probably come from within the UK, and most of it will be from Lincolnshire.
“And it’s sad to think that those people who have put all of that effort in, so we can all live, aren’t getting that same support.”
As of April 7, there has been a ceasefire on active war. However, US President Donald Trump has said this is on “massive life support” after rejecting Iran’s demands in a counteroffer to end the war, on May 12.
The continued Russia-Ukraine conflict, environmental factors, and the changes to inheritance tax, are also amplifying the pressures and costs farmers are facing in 2026.
While this uncertainty continues, farmers continue to battle the growing prices and prepare for what will happen if the war remains.
Tom Bradshaw, the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) president, said: “Farmers and growers are having to shoulder increased costs of fuel and fertiliser, often only being made aware of the price they will pay once products have been delivered onto farm.
“Meanwhile, many horticulture businesses face a double whammy with the surging cost of heating glasshouses, combined with the large increases to their standing charges for energy use which have now come into force.
“If these cost pressures persist – which span the whole food supply chain – food inflation could rise, as recent reporting suggests.”
